BY GREG SAITZ, Star-Ledger Staff

By the time dawn breaks to morrow, or the rest of the weekend. The National Re tail Federation, an industry trade group, expects about 137 million shoppers to put down their turkey legs and go shopping by the end of Sunday.

 

Last year, more than 60 million consumers went to stores on Black Friday and forked over nearly $28 billion during the long holiday weekend. The day after Thanksgiv ing got its name because it's a time many retailers are said to start making money, or go into the black.

 

It's a crucial time for most merchants, who count on the holiday period for at least 20 percent of their annual sales. Blunders such as not having enough of the right Barbies or too many of the wrong color sweaters can be devastating.

 

Most retail industry observers expect a fairly solid season, though not as robust as 2005, when holiday sales rose 6.1 percent to $435.6 billion. One thing this year does have going for it, however, is an extra shopping day between Black Fri day and Christmas.

 

In years where there were 31 shopping days, as is the case this year, retail sales increased an average of 5 percent going back to 1968. The overall average during that period was 4.8 percent, according to Merrill Lynch.

 

Another potential benefit for stores is lower fuel costs—both for homes and cars—meaning consumers will have more money in their pockets. Cash, of course, that retailers hope shoppers will spend on plasma TVs and laptop computers.

 

Other electronics—Nintendo's Wii game box and Sony's PlaySta tion 3—are in high demand and are about as hard to come by as this year's version of Elmo. The furry red Muppet just doesn't seem as funny at more than $100.

 

Sales on Black Friday once again are starting hours before sunrise. But the madness of 5 a.m. openings and forearm shivers in the blouse aisle have no appeal for Carol Davidson, an image consultant and personal shopper based in Manhattan.

 

"Most years, I avoid (Black Fri day) at all costs," said Davidson, who used to manage the personal shopping department at Macy's Herald Square. "It's a day like no other. It's not the best day for productive shopping and it's not al ways the day you get the best deals."

 

Unfortunately for Davidson, it's also a day this year she'll be in the middle of the fray. A client with last-minute needs means Davidson will be up at the crack of dawn to morrow with a game plan and perhaps some flashbacks from her Black Fridays at Macy's.

 

Greg Saitz may be reached at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it or (973) 392-7946.